tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4872 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4872 Southwest SRQ 07:06 MCO 08:06 8% 3% 7.0% no record
WN 496 Southwest SRQ 17:41 MCO 18:41 22% 9% 3.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 5h 05m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 15m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 12m Newark EWR 11:05 → MCO 13:58UA 2396 7h 58m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → MCO 18:50DL 1497 5h 57m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 6h 47m 98% 66%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 04m Miami MIA 09:28 → MCO 10:38AA 2587 4h 16m 93% 66%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MCO 00:15 +1DL 1162 6h 41m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 10:55 → MCO 12:42AA 1576 6h 21m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON