Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4032 at 16:26, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4032 Southwest	SRQ 16:26	MDW 18:25	18%	8%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 50m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 30m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 41m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON