tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 06:22, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history → SRQ 06:22 MIA 07:24 10% 4% 1.9% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 11m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 22m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 50m 96% 66%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 7h 21m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:11 → DCA 14:59AA 2584 2h 28m Washington DCA 17:27 → MIA 20:21AA 973 8h 10m 95% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 6h 51m 98% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → MIA 16:35DL 1386 5h 35m 97% 63%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 39m Newark EWR 11:32 → MIA 14:39UA 2295 8h 39m 97% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON