tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5406 SkyWest SRQ 12:19 ORD 14:23 29% 9% 4.3% no record
UA 1744 United SRQ 16:14 ORD 18:17 36% 11% 4.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → ORD 10:06DL 1147 5h 14m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894 6h 42m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 6h 58m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 17:19 → IAH 19:17UA 6175 · flown by Mesa 2h 51m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 8h 26m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 31m Newark EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 7h 06m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:11 → DCA 14:59AA 2584 3h 28m Washington DCA 18:27 → ORD 19:50AA 3148 8h 39m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 7h 19m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 02m Miami MIA 08:26 → ORD 10:43AA 3076 5h 21m 90% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON