tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:52, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279 6h 23m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131 7h 30m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Miami MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 5h 48m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 6h 22m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:11 → DCA 14:59AA 2584 2h 40m Washington DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA 6h 44m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 7h 25m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692 4h 58m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329 6h 58m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON