Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1524 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1524 STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3300 STL 16:52 → ATL 19:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1524 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:00	ATL 08:38	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1536 Delta Flight history →	STL 08:00	ATL 10:35	7%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 199 Southwest	STL 10:02	ATL 12:43	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:16	ATL 12:54	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:15	ATL 16:01	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2700 Delta Flight history →	STL 15:39	ATL 18:25	13%	5%	1.7%	87%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	STL 17:43	ATL 20:23	17%	6%	2.2%	81%
WN 3300 Southwest	STL 16:52	ATL 19:33	21%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON