tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1642 at 13:42, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1642 Southwest STL 13:42 AUS 15:59 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 11:50 → AUS 14:40DL 2062 8h 19m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 7h 51m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 53m Detroit DTW 15:46 → AUS 18:04DL 1612 7h 45m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 21m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 7h 52m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 3h 46m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 7h 10m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 2h 01m Houston IAH 10:15 → AUS 11:19UA 1823 5h 13m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 13:23 → PHL 16:51AA 1739 48m Philadelphia PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30AA 1314 7h 07m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON