Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charleston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:43DL 2179	6h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → CHS 17:19DL 2174	6h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → CHS 12:20DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor	4h 50m	94%	81%
United Details →	STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 13:22 → CHS 15:16UA 1952	5h 33m	89%	80%
American Details →	STL 06:51 → CLT 09:48AA 1515	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → CHS 13:48AA 5222 · flown by PSA	5h 57m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59DL 3179	4h 44m	98%	77%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 25m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CHS 16:02UA 6295 · flown by Mesa	6h 27m	97%	77%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → CHS 14:09UA 2631	5h 49m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:05UA 6258 · flown by Mesa	5h 10m	74%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON