tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 176 Southwest STL 10:17 CLE 13:04 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2075 Southwest STL 16:52 CLE 19:39 14% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → CLE 13:35DL 775 6h 35m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → CLE 15:29DL 2545 6h 29m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 2h 28m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 5h 34m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750 5h 20m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 1h 29m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 4h 38m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 3h 30m Chicago ORD 13:05 → CLE 15:28UA 1878 6h 28m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 1h 10m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 6h 20m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 22:02 → CLE 23:56DL 651 7h 17m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 3h 58m 66% 56%
DeltaDetails → STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m New York LGA 17:14 → CLE 19:19DL 5194 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 74% 44%
AmericanDetails → STL 15:32 → DFW 17:28AA 1363 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:31 → CLE 22:24AA 1484 5h 52m 68% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON