Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1515 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1515 STL 06:51 → CLT 09:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3096 STL 13:52 → CLT 16:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1515 American Flight history →	STL 06:51	CLT 09:48	11%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	11%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	STL 10:19	CLT 13:14	12%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	STL 13:52	CLT 16:45	22%	6%	1.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON