Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1260 at 10:02, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1260 Southwest	STL 10:02	CMH 12:35	5%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 38m	99%	87%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 25m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa	6h 30m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 15:58DL 2892	6h 58m	98%	85%
American Details →	STL 04:57 → ORD 06:23AA 1926	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 07:25 → CMH 09:52AA 3414 · flown by Envoy	3h 55m	91%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → CMH 19:27DL 2786	5h 12m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → CMH 23:33DL 1459	6h 54m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 16:09 → DTW 18:47DL 1371	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	3h 53m	88%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	3h 54m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON