Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3356 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3356 STL 06:32 → DEN 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 STL 16:31 → DEN 17:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3356 Southwest	STL 06:32	DEN 08:03	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5548 SkyWest	STL 05:04	DEN 06:31	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4062 Southwest	STL 08:52	DEN 10:23	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4064 Southwest	STL 13:42	DEN 15:13	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2459 United Flight history →	STL 09:06	DEN 10:30	13%	4%	0.5%	92%
UA 1380 United Flight history →	STL 13:38	DEN 15:00	15%	5%	0.5%	86%
F9 4567 Frontier Flight history →	STL 20:08	DEN 21:44	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 147 Southwest	STL 17:27	DEN 18:58	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2323 United	STL 16:31	DEN 17:51	21%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON