Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2261 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1363 STL 15:32 → DFW 17:28 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:33	DFW 07:30	8%	4%	1.1%	92%
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:01	DFW 09:00	14%	6%	1.1%	83%
MQ 4074 Envoy	STL 12:50	DFW 14:43	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1959 American Flight history →	STL 08:28	DFW 10:31	16%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 3333 American	STL 10:12	DFW 12:06	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3739 Envoy	STL 17:04	DFW 19:00	19%	9%	3.4%	no record
AA 1363 American Flight history →	STL 15:32	DFW 17:28	34%	13%	1.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON