tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 208 at 13:56, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 208 Southwest STL 13:56 ECP 15:49 15% 4% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823 6h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053 5h 57m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094 5h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:43 → ATL 20:23DL 543 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131 5h 15m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → ECP 12:13AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 6h 40m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:51 → CLT 09:48AA 1515 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 12:07 → ECP 13:00AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 09m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:19 → CLT 13:14AA 2497 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 16:57 → ECP 17:45AA 5297 · flown by PSA 7h 26m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 1h 07m Houston IAH 09:21 → ECP 11:01UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 55m 90% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON