Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1479 Southwest	STL 10:12	FLL 14:10	14%	3%	2.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	3h 10m Houston	IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277	8h 12m	99%	78%
United Details →	STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa	3h 38m Houston	IAH 12:09 → FLL 15:51UA 1982	8h 37m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	54m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	6h 04m	93%	75%
United Details →	STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371	2h 03m Houston	IAH 10:17 → FLL 14:06UA 2670	7h 00m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 27m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → FLL 18:57DL 1037	7h 38m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	7h 24m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → FLL 15:55DL 1413	6h 55m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	59m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → FLL 22:04UA 463	5h 42m	61%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON