Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4073 at 05:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4073 STL 05:13 → HOU 07:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5004 STL 16:52 → HOU 19:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4073 Southwest	STL 05:13	HOU 07:24	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4147 Southwest	STL 08:27	HOU 10:37	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3004 Southwest	STL 00:12	HOU 02:22	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4183 Southwest	STL 13:57	HOU 16:07	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 5004 Southwest	STL 16:52	HOU 19:02	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON