Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4506 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:43	IAD 11:55	18%	8%	0.3%	82%
UA 4454 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 12:55	IAD 16:07	28%	16%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 26m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	6h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082	4h 17m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	1h 54m Detroit	DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787	5h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	6h 08m	99%	82%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	1h 56m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	7h 52m	96%	81%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904	6h 39m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 16:09 → DTW 18:47DL 1371	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202	5h 00m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON