Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 652 STL 15:06 → IAH 17:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1371 STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 652 United	STL 15:06	IAH 17:30	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1371 United Flight history →	STL 06:06	IAH 08:14	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 4579 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:35	IAH 10:50	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
UA 6283 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 06:14	IAH 08:31	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
UA 6213 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:10	IAH 13:25	15%	5%	0.4%	85%
UA 4028 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:35	IAH 10:52	16%	5%	2.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON