tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4301 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4301 Southwest STL 10:00 JAX 13:04 9% 2% 0.9% no record
WN 4973 Southwest STL 16:52 JAX 19:57 21% 5% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:15 → JAX 14:06DL 2392 6h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024 6h 25m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990 6h 19m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440 6h 34m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 1h 28m Chicago ORD 10:28 → JAX 13:57UA 8113 5h 37m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 12:43 → JAX 14:10AA 1937 5h 38m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:32 → JAX 13:08AA 2329 6h 35m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 53m Chicago ORD 10:28 → JAX 13:57UA 8113 4h 57m 65% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON