Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1145 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1145 STL 06:22 → LAS 08:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 474 STL 17:57 → LAS 19:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1145 Southwest	STL 06:22	LAS 08:14	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1932 Southwest	STL 08:27	LAS 10:09	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 3107 Frontier Flight history →	STL 12:09	LAS 13:51	15%	6%	1.4%	79%
WN 4467 Southwest	STL 13:47	LAS 15:34	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 474 Southwest	STL 17:57	LAS 19:39	24%	10%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380	1h 04m Denver	DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424	5h 33m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON