Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2493 STL 08:27 → LAX 10:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1384 STL 13:42 → LAX 15:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2493 Southwest	STL 08:27	LAX 10:42	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 6480 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 06:22	LAX 08:52	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
WN 1384 Southwest	STL 13:42	LAX 15:52	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	1h 15m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	6h 11m	87%	71%
Frontier Details →	STL 20:08 → DEN 21:44F9 4567	55m Denver	DEN 22:39 → LAX 00:15 +1F9 4339	6h 07m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON