tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4087 Southwest STL 08:22 MCI 09:40 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4075 Southwest STL 14:20 MCI 15:33 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 16m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741 6h 53m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 6h 12m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 1h 15m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 5h 40m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 16m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 6h 13m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:57 → ORD 06:23AA 1926 3h 53m Chicago ORD 10:16 → MCI 11:59AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → MCI 14:01AA 3233 6h 29m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023 6h 15m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet 1h 04m Chicago ORD 14:07 → MCI 15:36UA 545 4h 11m 73% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON