Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4622 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4622 STL 05:20 → MCO 08:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4094 STL 17:07 → MCO 20:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest	STL 05:20	MCO 08:39	4%	1%	4.5%	no record
WN 3363 Southwest	STL 06:32	MCO 10:01	5%	2%	5.2%	no record
WN 4091 Southwest	STL 10:02	MCO 13:31	9%	3%	4.5%	no record
WN 3345 Southwest	STL 11:32	MCO 15:01	11%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 4092 Southwest	STL 13:39	MCO 17:16	14%	5%	1.8%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest	STL 17:07	MCO 20:40	15%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON