Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1716 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1716 STL 05:18 → MIA 09:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest MQ 3851 STL 17:14 → MIA 21:09 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1716 American Flight history →	STL 05:18	MIA 09:15	11%	3%	1.1%	96%
WN 3371 Southwest	STL 10:02	MIA 13:49	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1901 Southwest	STL 16:52	MIA 20:49	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3851 Envoy	STL 17:14	MIA 21:09	27%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON