Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1597 STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 3811 STL 15:42 → MSP 17:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1597 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:21	MSP 07:56	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 194 Southwest	STL 08:21	MSP 09:58	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1224 Delta	STL 17:44	MSP 19:34	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4368 Southwest	STL 13:43	MSP 15:18	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3811 SkyWest	STL 15:42	MSP 17:27	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON