Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3355 at 10:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3355 Southwest	STL 10:02	MSY 11:55	8%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	5h 37m	98%	86%
United Details →	STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371	3h 41m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 08m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 17m	98%	81%
United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	2h 00m Houston	IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738	5h 23m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	5h 41m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678	5h 19m	98%	79%
United Details →	STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa	1h 04m Houston	IAH 09:35 → MSY 10:51UA 575	4h 37m	88%	74%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 10:56 → MSY 13:23UA 1532	6h 03m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON