Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:51, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STL 06:51 → CLT 09:48AA 1515	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	4h 45m	89%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	6h 14m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047	3h 49m	90%	76%
American Details →	STL 13:52 → CLT 16:45AA 3096	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 20:08 → MYR 21:19AA 1085	6h 27m	100%	73%
American Details →	STL 10:19 → CLT 13:14AA 2497	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 15:58 → MYR 17:06AA 2943	5h 47m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074	5h 10m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON