tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415 8h 00m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:00 → SLC 19:09DL 1492 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 7h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503 10h 33m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 59m Denver DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255 8h 09m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 7h 50m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:41 → PDX 22:04DL 691 10h 49m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 46m Denver DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644 5h 52m 51% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON