Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 568 at 10:27, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 568 Southwest	STL 10:27	PIT 13:15	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STL 04:57 → ORD 06:23AA 1926	1h 59m Chicago	ORD 08:22 → PIT 11:11AA 4478 · flown by Republic	5h 14m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 52m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 07:05 → LGA 10:35DL 4939 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m New York	LGA 13:04 → PIT 14:51DL 5715 · flown by Republic	6h 46m	97%	85%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Houston	IAH 12:00 → PIT 15:56UA 315	6h 21m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	5h 52m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 17:43 → ATL 20:23DL 543	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351	5h 39m	99%	82%
United Details →	STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 14:25 → PIT 17:10UA 1349	5h 50m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PIT 21:35DL 2583	7h 20m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	4h 29m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON