Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 766 at 13:07, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 766 Southwest	STL 13:07	PNS 15:05	9%	3%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	4h 55m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198	4h 46m	98%	84%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	3h 30m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 31m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	6h 20m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013	4h 25m	96%	82%
American Details →	STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 36m	96%	78%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:57 → PNS 13:19UA 2492	5h 59m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	3h 55m	86%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON