Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4118 at 10:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4118 Southwest	STL 10:02	RDU 13:06	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 278 Southwest	STL 16:57	RDU 20:01	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → RDU 14:09DL 2521	6h 48m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052	4h 38m	98%	89%
American Details →	STL 04:57 → ORD 06:23AA 1926	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:20 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	5h 41m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	5h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → RDU 11:52DL 2164	4h 22m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550	4h 41m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 16:09 → DTW 18:47DL 1371	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	6h 16m	97%	83%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Houston	IAH 12:02 → RDU 15:55UA 2196	6h 20m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STL 13:53 → ORD 15:26AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 16:15 → RDU 19:35AA 4503 · flown by Republic	4h 42m	71%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON