tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1792 Southwest STL 10:12 RSW 13:50 9% 2% 1.5% no record
WN 4122 Southwest STL 16:57 RSW 20:35 15% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 06m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153 6h 36m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 1h 35m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 6h 03m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:31 → RSW 13:08UA 494 6h 02m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 28m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 03m Chicago ORD 11:03 → RSW 14:55UA 2137 6h 35m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:43 → ATL 20:23DL 543 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 5h 40m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 1h 16m Denver DEN 16:16 → RSW 21:58UA 572 7h 20m 91% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON