Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 738 Southwest	STL 08:42	SAN 10:50	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125	9h 04m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 17:00 → SLC 19:09DL 1492	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202	7h 15m	96%	79%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	7h 49m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761	9h 44m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 08m	98%	75%
United Details →	STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371	3h 46m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	9h 15m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 08m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712	8h 15m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON