tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4350 at 13:47, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4350 Southwest STL 13:47 SAT 16:10 11% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 57m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 5h 25m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 2h 46m Detroit DTW 11:50 → SAT 13:59DL 2458 7h 29m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 1h 25m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 4h 40m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 38m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 3h 56m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 7h 18m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 49m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 1h 05m Houston IAH 09:36 → SAT 10:51UA 1371 4h 37m 88% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 5h 49m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 06:22 → LAX 08:52AA 6480 · flown by SkyWest 47m Los Angeles LAX 09:39 → SAT 14:40AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest 8h 18m 38% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON