tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 473 Alaska Flight history → STL 06:02 SEA 08:30 11% 3% 0.8% 91%
AS 1651 Alaska STL 16:41 SEA 19:00 30% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 8h 39m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 25m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 9h 59m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 49m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481 10h 43m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 3h 53m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 10h 23m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 49m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:06 → IAH 08:14UA 1371 3h 53m Houston IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228 10h 47m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON