tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 573 United STL 07:04 SFO 09:27 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 3h 20m Dulles IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862 11h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:00 → SLC 19:09DL 1492 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091 8h 20m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 11m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 47m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656 10h 18m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:29 → SFO 16:27UA 2611 9h 52m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:22 → LAX 08:52AA 6480 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Los Angeles LAX 11:02 → SFO 12:42AA 1110 8h 20m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 03m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 50m Denver DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 5h 58m 70% 54%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 44%
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 56m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 27m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON