tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4126 Southwest STL 08:22 SMF 10:50 6% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 28m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 16m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:00 → SLC 19:09DL 1492 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582 7h 10m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662 8h 11m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:26 → SMF 21:27DL 682 10h 12m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:30 → SMF 10:22AA 2081 6h 49m 92% 72%
FrontierDetails → STL 12:09 → LAS 13:51F9 3107 2h 11m Las Vegas LAS 16:02 → SMF 17:57F9 2069 7h 48m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:25 → ORD 08:58AA 1997 2h 49m Chicago ORD 11:47 → SMF 14:29AA 1906 9h 04m 97% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON