Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2077 at 10:07, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2077 Southwest	STL 10:07	SRQ 13:36	12%	2%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	4h 48m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	5h 42m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115	5h 21m	97%	79%
United Details →	STL 06:04 → ORD 07:33UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	8h 08m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	STL 15:39 → ATL 18:25DL 2700	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997	5h 48m	96%	75%
American Details →	STL 13:52 → CLT 16:45AA 3096	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604	6h 31m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON