tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4129 Southwest STL 10:02 TPA 13:30 8% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 3370 Southwest STL 16:47 TPA 20:15 17% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264 6h 53m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525 7h 08m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 5h 20m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 2h 00m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 6h 37m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425 6h 37m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 35m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 19m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 52m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 2h 38m Chicago ORD 14:30 → TPA 18:24UA 1057 7h 04m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 15:32 → DFW 17:28AA 1363 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:19 → TPA 21:57AA 2401 5h 25m 63% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON