tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 650 Southwest STL 10:27 VPS 12:22 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3394 Southwest STL 15:27 VPS 17:22 15% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 6h 52m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 29m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:15 → ATL 16:01DL 566 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 27m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → ATL 10:35DL 1536 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832 6h 11m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:16 → ATL 12:54DL 1400 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170 5h 49m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 17:43 → ATL 20:23DL 543 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097 5h 20m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → STL 10:19 → CLT 13:14AA 2497 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 16:56 → VPS 17:49AA 5201 · flown by PSA 7h 30m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:33 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 5h 55m 97% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON