Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3032 at 15:40, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3032 SkyWest	STS 15:40	ONT 17:23	19%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:07 → PHX 15:17AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Phoenix	PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666	5h 19m	100%	71%
American Details →	STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29AA 1695	9h 50m	100%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → ONT 20:18AA 2147	7h 39m	10%	6%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON