Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3399 at 15:22, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3399 SkyWest	STS 15:22	PDX 17:10	15%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 09:45 → PSP 11:30AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Palm Springs	PSP 14:04 → PDX 16:25AS 1323	6h 40m	100%	84%
American Details →	STS 13:07 → PHX 15:17AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 17:47 → PDX 20:39AA 1625	7h 32m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon	3h 24m Las Vegas	LAS 18:08 → PDX 20:27AS 779	7h 21m	100%	74%
American Details →	STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:12 → PDX 23:25AA 2298	10h 46m	100%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON