Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 13:07	PHX 15:17	16%	6%	1.2%	96%worse than usual
OO 4989 SkyWest	STS 16:18	PHX 18:50	17%	13%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → PHX 20:44AA 3232	8h 05m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	STS 17:56 → SAN 19:35AS 2257 · flown by Horizon	1h 44m San Diego	SAN 21:19 → PHX 22:39AS 2049 · flown by Horizon	4h 43m	81%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON