tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AS 513 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 513 Alaska STS 06:58 SEA 08:50 18% 5% 2.0% no record
AS 1348 Alaska STS 17:04 SEA 18:57 31% 10% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → STS 09:45 → PSP 11:30AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Palm Springs PSP 14:21 → SEA 17:04AS 457 7h 19m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → STS 13:07 → PHX 15:17AA 3757 · flown by Envoy 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 58m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Santa Ana SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 6h 24m 91% 67%
AlaskaDetails → STS 13:06 → LAS 14:44AS 2459 · flown by Horizon 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 15:54 → SEA 18:25AS 738 5h 19m 94% 61%
AmericanDetails → STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:54AA 2009 9h 15m 76% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest 49m Santa Ana SNA 11:01 → SEA 13:39AS 1428 5h 09m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON