Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3287 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 08:30	SNA 10:12	23%	11%	2.3%	79%
OO 3056 SkyWest	STS 13:29	SNA 15:14	25%	10%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:07 → PHX 15:17AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 16:57 → SNA 18:29AA 2471	5h 22m	100%	75%
American Details →	STS 12:39 → DFW 18:11AA 3766 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806	7h 43m	76%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON