tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 9h 47m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445 1h 12m Dulles IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755 7h 14m 90% 74%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943 3h 59m Miami MIA 20:39 → BOS 00:04 +1AA 613 10h 24m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530 2h 45m Newark EWR 21:14 → BOS 22:20UA 1117 8h 17m 96% 61%
JetBlueDetails → STT 15:48 → SJU 16:30B6 435 3h 37m San Juan SJU 20:07 → BOS 00:13 +1B6 462 8h 25m 97% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → STT 14:00 → SJU 14:40B6 808 50m San Juan SJU 15:30 → BOS 19:37B6 808 5h 37m 58% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON