Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2004 at 16:52, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2004 American	STT 16:52	CLT 20:57	26%	7%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	8h 25m	95%	77%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → CLT 23:59UA 2074	7h 14m	92%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530	48m Newark	EWR 19:17 → CLT 21:20UA 1168	7h 17m	56%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON