Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 12:00 → IAH 16:15UA 2208	1h 50m Houston	IAH 18:05 → DFW 19:31UA 1535	8h 31m	97%	64%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	9h 26m	95%	63%
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943	2h 58m Miami	MIA 19:38 → DFW 21:45AA 2289	9h 05m	97%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943	57m Miami	MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828	6h 56m	73%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON