Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1530 at 14:03, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1530 United Flight history →	STT 14:03	EWR 18:29	26%	10%	1.2%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 12:00 → IAH 16:15UA 2208	3h 40m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	12h 37m	100%	78%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 45m Dulles	IAD 22:43 → EWR 23:53UA 1997	7h 08m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	8h 13m	93%	63%
JetBlue Details →	STT 14:00 → SJU 14:40B6 808	2h 19m San Juan	SJU 16:59 → EWR 21:24B6 1990	7h 24m	88%	58%
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943	3h 05m Miami	MIA 19:45 → EWR 22:53AA 322	9h 13m	97%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON