Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1445 at 16:45, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1445 United Flight history →	STT 16:45	IAD 20:58	15%	6%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 12:00 → IAH 16:15UA 2208	3h 55m Houston	IAH 20:10 → IAD 00:02 +1UA 1968	12h 02m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 08m	97%	76%
United Details →	STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530	3h 21m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	9h 16m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON